The 2nd wave of the global crisis has been discussed in the world media for 2 years. In this respect Masterforex-V’s forecast look fairly interesting. According to the forecast, which was made in late 2009, the 2nd wave of the global crisis will probably start shortly after the devaluation of the Belarusian Ruble. The sensation is that 1.5 later Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, practically confirmed the thesis. After the sharp devaluation of the Belarusian Ruble and considerable price hikes he said that Belarus was hit by the 2nd wave of the crisis.
What did Masterforex-V Academy and Market Leader warn the world about?
In November-December 2009 Market Leader published the forecasts made by Masterforex-V Academy in the two articles called “the 2nd wave of the crisis is logical and unavoidable” and “The Belarusian Ruble may indicate the 2nd wave of the global crisis”. These forecast precisely predicted the current situation:
· Economic crisis. This is not the first time MF-V Academy has hit the bull's eye. In June 2008 the Academy was among the first to foresee the global crisis while politicians and mass media kept saying that the economic problems were local (the US) and temporary.
· The end of the 1st wave of the crisis. In March 2009 Market Leader published the article by Masterforex-V Academy, confirming that the 1st wave was over and the global economy had started recovering.
· Tech analysis for the major global currencies. The new tech analysis by Masterforex-V, crisis monitoring and the statements made by various politicians and big-scale financiers (Barack Obama, Hosni Mubarak, Norbert Walter (Deutsche Bank), George Soros etc.) made the Academy experts conclude that the 2nd wave of the crisis was unavoidable.
Why is it Belarus and its national currency that can indicate another crisis?
Having applied the new tech analysis the experts of Masterforex-V Academy found out that the Belarusian Ruble could be the first to indicate the 2nd wave of the crisis and the domino effect. Such a scenario seemed especially dangerous at that time (after the Dubai crisis) as numerous big-scale investors might well take advantage of the confusion to make the global indexes collapse.
That is how the forecast for the Belarusian Ruble looked at the end of 2009.
1. The dynamics of the Belarusian Ruble exchange rate. In late 2009 the Belarusian Association of Traders and Investors under Masterforex-V Academy start paying attention to the Belarusian Ruble as it appeared to help to anticipate the movement of major currencies and indexes. Thanks to the new tech analysis by Masterforex-V the experts managed to anticipate the rapid devaluation of the Belarusian Ruble. The pace of its decline was considerable relative to the prolonged strengthening of the Bel Ruble (BYR) against the US Dollar (from summer till November 2009). As long as in 2009 BYR was pegged to some of the major currencies (EUR, USD and RUR). Its devaluation became a matter of time. In other worlds, it depended on how long the relatively weak Belarusian economy would stand.
2. In reality it was the Belarusian Ruble (BYR) and the Ukrainian Hryvna (UAH) that found themselves in the “risk zone”. In 2010 the question was which one of them would start declining first, making other currencies decline as well. BYR was the first one to collapse.
3. The burden of the Belarusian economy. Numerous disputes with Russia, costly presidential elections and the sanctions introduced by the West exerted extremely heavy pressure on the fragile economy of Belarus.
4. Moreover, having survived the 1st wave of the global crisis, most Belarusian enterprises just exceeded their safety margins. Other problems included a decline in the country’s consumer buying power, costly bank loans, payment difficulties, growing competitiveness and uncertainty connected with the first year of the Customs Union.
BYR perspectives:
Consequently, BYR started a downtrend in late 2009 and eventually was officially devalued in May 2011.
According to the Belarusian Association of Traders and Investors under Masterforex-V Academy, the Belarusian Ruble will probably continue losing in value. According to some investors participating in the 6th Bond Congress of the CIS and Baltic states in Minsk, BYR will devalue by 60%.
Does Belarus hint at what is going to happen in the near future? Will there be the 2nd wave of the global crisis?
The Academy’s forecast about the devaluation of the Belarusian Ruble scored 100%. Now there is another question: Will the world see another major crisis? We remind you that Charles Nenner – one of the world’s most respected and influential financial analysts – anticipates a major war and market collapse in 2012.
Is it really so? According to the experts of Masterforex-V Academy, it is important to specify the cause-effect relations of the BYR devaluation and the global economic problems. Belarus is an indicator and one of the weakest participants of the global economy. As opposed to Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal it is not a EU member and consequently cannot receive multi-billion loans to postpone the manifestation of global problems within its economy. The experts say that Belarus is the reflection of what the world will face in the foreseeable future.
When will the 2nd wave of the crisis begin?
According to the new tech analysis created by Masterforex-V, there are distinct criteria of analyzing Forex and other markets. These criteria help to anticipate changes of major trends (as in June 2008 and March 2009).
By now there is no change of the major trend. It will take place if:
There is a full-grown FZR in the markets. For example, S&P500 breaks and consolidates below 1250. You can find all the details in the article called “Further market growth or major collapse?”
· The USD index breaks above 76.431:
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could share with others your own opinion on the matter. Please, visit the Academy’s forum and give an answer to the question below:
Can the Belarusian Ruble be trusted and used as an indicator for major currencies?
· Yes, it can. The global economy is a system. Its weak spot is the right tool to anticipate a market change for a downtrend.
· No, it cannot. These are just the local economic problems of Belarus.
You are free to discuss this article here: forum for traders and investors
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