6ECONT and EURUSD have considerable potential to grow

Market Leader informed

The common European currency has recently managed to easily upgrade the local high, reaching 1.4280. Last time EURUSD managed to score such a success was in December 2009.

The overall market sentiment is positive. One of the reasons for it was yesterday’s news release on the US interest rates. Technical analysis indicates the bullish potential as well. However, there is also a chance of retracement down the 1.4100 area in the near future.

This trading day is rich in forthcoming macroeconomic news releases. At 8.30GMT the UK is to release its news block, followed by the economic data from the EU (12.00-13.00GMT). Today’s American trading session will be rich in news events as well: the 12.30GMT news block, especially Change in Non-farm Payrolls, followed by a range ofother news releases from 14.00 to 19.00GMT.

The Department of Volume Analysis, Masterforex-V Academy, has defined for today:

The mid-term dynamics is upward

The short-term dynamics of 6ECONT (EURUSD futures):

In terms of trading volumes, the 1.4200-4210 price range looks fairly significant at the moment as this is the area of the maximal volume cluster of the European session. If the price succeeds in going up from the area and consolidating above it then we will witness a series of new local highs. If there is settlement below the area, the price may start developing the anticipated retracement.

Great Britain decides to build its own Silicon Valley

Market Leader informed

British Prime Minister David Cameron has recently announced the desire to create “East London Tech City”, the British version of Silicon Valley.

 

The example of the Russian “Skolkovo” appears to be catching. However, following the trend is not an end in itself for the British government. The London technological hub is planned to be created on the basis of the Olympic park facilities. So, the Government expects to gain double benefit from the Olympic park.

According to David Cameron, a number of well-know IT-companies are ready to invest in the project, among them are Facebook, Cisco, Google and Intel.  The Government plans to cooperate with businessmen and scientists from numerous countries of the world.

Has the news event had any impact on GBPUSD so far? Yesterday the currency pair was rapidly forming bullish wave C (C ) on H6 within the scope of wave C(C ) on D3.

The Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system expects the bullish movement to be elongated as the bullish power hasn’t run low yet.

To reverse the mid-term trend  GBPUSD needs to break through the MF pivots (1,6137 and 1,5963) and  the MF Sloping Channels defending the uptrend.

News for today (Nov 5^th – GMT):

Singapore dollar: after the flood

Market Leader informed

Earlier this week heavy rains lead to serious floods in Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, which caused a crop failure and consequently a price boom, on rubber in particular.

In the meantime, USD continues declining versus the Singapore Dollar (SGD) at Forex.

This week the price keeps shaping the 5^th subwave inside wave C on D1. Its constituents: wave A of level H8, a retracement for wave B, and wave a (C ) or C, which is currently being developed and has a 5-wave structure with H2 waves acting as its subwaves.

Thereby,  the Department of studying  Masterforex-V trading system expects one of the following scenarios of the USDSGD price movement to take place:

·continuation of wave A/5 of level H2

·appearance of the upward MF Reference Point, with breaking through the MF pivots at 1.2854 and 1.2893 and coming out of the MF Sloping Channel, which will signify the end of wave a(C )/C of level H8

·elongation of wave a(C )/C on h8 through “the Hound of the Baskervilles by Elder MF”

Nov 5^th. Forthcoming news (GMT):

Why is the US interested in Russia's accession to the WTO?

Market Leader informed

According to Michael Froman, who is deputy assistant to the president and deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs, the United States will be promoting the Russian Federation’s accession to the World Trading Organization.

 

Barak Obama also speaks in favor of the process

. In particular, during the recent phone call to Dmitry Medvedev he said that they might consider the bilateral talks on Russia's accession to the WTO to be practically over. During the latest briefing Froman stated that the US was currently holding talks with the EU and the WTO on the matter.

We should remind you that Russia has been trying to join the World Trading Organization since 1993. Basing on the experience of the neighboring countries (Ukraine, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan) it can be said that on average the talks last from 5 to 7 years. The standard procedure of accepting new members takes from 6 to 12 months more. According to Mr. Kudrin, Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation, Russia will be ready to start to the procedure of entering the WTO only in 4 months. Consequently, we should expect Russia to join the organization not earlier than in a year.

Lawrence Summers, Director of the White House National Economic Council for President Barack Obama, confirmed the information during one of his latest speeches. According to him, all the necessary talks will last for several months, so Russia will have become a full member of the WTO by the end of 2010. The thorniest question and the obstacle on the way is the Customs Union (CU) of Belarus, Russia and Kazakhstan. According to Mr. Summers, as a result of the talks with the Russian Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, they have reached an agreement according to which the Russian Federation will be joining the WTO separately from the other members of the CU.

G20 summit in Seoul: will the world change after it?

Market Leader informed

The world has stood still waiting for the G20 summit, which is to take place in Seoul on Nov 10^th -11^th 2010. The financial circles start expressing concerns which may turn into panic if not dealt with in time. 

 

The problem is that:

·Various members of G20 see completely different ways out of the crisis, which have already been announced to the citizens of the corresponding countries.

·Each member of G20 is trying to solve its own problems at the expense of the others.

Fortunately, the world hasn’t yet come down to the principle: “The worse the neighbor feels the better it is for me” (as it was on the verge of the Great Depression in the USA). However every country has been taking care of its own interests for al long time.

The mixed plan of coming out of the crisis through the eyes of the major G20 participants.

This is the way the experts of Masterforex-V Academy see the G20 members’ current plans of coming out of the crisis, which are going to be introduced in Seoul:

1.European states (Germany, France) promote austerity measures (budget reductions, pension reforms etc.) as the key means of economic recovery of the entire world and every single state in particular.

2.The US Fed Reserve System is planning to use G20 summit to implement the currency stimulation program while openly hinting at the possibility of devaluing USD even though the G20 finance ministers haveurged the governments to not devalue their national currencies so as to stop the trading wars (as the devaluation of the national currency provides the domestic exporters with extra favorable conditions)

3.The US government urges its partners to lower the global disproportions between export and import. In other words, with the help of G20 the US government wants to put into practice such conditions that would eliminate its negative balance in trading with China, other Asian counties (South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) and Germany.

4.The world’s biggest corporations keep accumulating cash while the governments of numerous states, including the US, are trying to “deprive the billionaires of their money” in order to solve their own problems at the expense of the latter

5.The counties with big earnings (China, South Korea, Singapore) do the same that the corporations do:

·At the G20 summit they want to secure the favorable conditions for external trade, first of all with the US… and to continue earning profits.

·They accumulate gold and currency reserves. For example, China’s currency reserve is estimated at $2.6 trillion, which is the main reason for the global trade imbalance, EU representatives say.

Oil Coming Out of Range

Market Leader informed

The WTI futures price at New York Commodities Exchange (NYMEX) created Wave 5/A(c) within its range on 3 November 10, having previously reached retracement target levels for Wave 4 at 38.2% ($79.91).

 

Experts of the Faculty for Studying the Masterforex-V Trading System emphasize that the medium-term bullish trend remains intact. However, there are no conditions for secure medium-term buying of the futures so far as the current wave is short and a pullback is necessary. A protective bullish pivot at $79.74 should be broken and a Fractal-Zigzag Reversal (FZR) should emerge to change the trend.

How Can Russia Benefit from Wheat Futures from Chicago Mercantile Exchange?

Market Leader informed

October 2010 ended with unexpected growth of wheat prices by 1.1%-1.4% on American exchanges which was, nevertheless, immediately set off as early as during the first days of November with a 2%-3% fall and a continuing tendency for depreciation.

 

In the meantime, as reported by The Times on 1 November, Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group headed by CME CEO Craig Donohue visited Moscow and negotiated with Victor Zubkov, the Russian Vice-Prime-Minister for the agricultural sector of the Russian economy.

 

Negotiations were aimed at introducing wheat futures in Russia. According to expert forecasts, this step will be mutually beneficial.

In this way CME Group would be able to expand its trading floors by cooperation (possibly, based on the Globex platform that already in place at Chicago Exchange) with leaders of the agrarian sector of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The Times observers believe that it will inevitably cooperate with RTS which currently trades futures for Urals and Brent oil and gold.

 

On the other hand, tools offered by Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), a trading floor that has traditionally been an international indicator of prices for exported and imported grain crops for decades will be rather useful for Russian producers

British Pound keeps getting stronger

Market Leader informed

According to its new accommodation policy, the US Fed Reserve is going to buy the treasuries to the sum of $600B.

The Fed Reserve reports that it is going to spend $75B every month to purchase the long-term treasury bonds. Such a measure may have a negative impact on the creditworthiness of the United States.

 

At the same time the Fed Reserves keeps devaluing USD.

In such a situation the British Pound currency rate at Forex is demonstrating positive dynamics.

Having broken through the high, the GBPUSD rate keeps on growing while developing short wave a (C ) /C.

Should the downward retracement come out of the MF Sloping Channel and break through the MF pivot at 1.6051, the wave started at 1.5961 will be completed. The pivot at 1.5961 is now defending the whole wave from 1.5651.

Today’s news (Nov 4^th  - GMT):

12:00     GBR - Bank of England Rate Decision

12:30     USA - Jobless claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs

12:45     EU - European Central Bank Rate Decision

13:30     EU - ECB Press Conference

European banks to increase reserves

Market Leader informed

Over the near term the European Commission will look into the proposal made by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to reconsider the rates of reserve accumulation during economic uprising in favor of increasing them.

Such a measure is aimed at restraining the excessive volume of bank lending, which leads to a financial crisis. Besides, more solid bank reserves will soften the losses of the financial institutions under recession.

These proposals of the committee have been the toughest ones over the whole period of the common banking regulation in Europe since 1974. In their turn, the representatives of the European Banking Federation suppose that such an increase in the rates of reserve accumulation will deteriorate the situation in the banking sector.

Yesterday during the news release on the Fed Reserve interest rate decision, which remained intact at 0.25%, the European currency updated its mid-term high at 1.4157, showing that the uptrend was still strong.

Representatives of the Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system assume that currently the EURUSD currency pair is shaping a short wave of the senior timeframe, the “MF Moment of Truth” for which will indicate the direction of the EUR mid-term trend.

If the MF pivot at 1.4010 and the MF Sloping Channel are broken through, the wave started at 1.3734 will be completed. If the price keeps declining and getting over the MF pivot at 1.3734, it will terminate the entire wave started at 1.2587. Otherwise the bullish wave will be elongated.

EURUSD: Forex stands still waiting...

Market Leader informed

Europe showed a positive start of the current trading session as the news data came out better than expected, which resulted in EUR growing against USD.

At Forex EURUSD is currently moving within the flat range formed in mid October. So most investors do not see any need to buy or sell the Euro currency.

An M15 wave (1.4057 - 1.4022) is acting as the reference point for the downward scenario while the price is currently forming a wave of level H2 from 1.3731.

Today’s news (Oct 3^rd - GMT):

11:00 USA - MBA Mortgage Applications

12:15 USA - ADP Employment Change

14:00 USA- ISM Non-Manuf. Composite

14:00 USA - Factory orders

14:30 USA - Crude Oil Inventories

18:15 USA - Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

Will the Dollar Lose 20% of its Worth in the Years to Come?

Market Leader informed

This will happen after the US Federal Reserve System (the FED) continues its effort aimed at loosening up its credit and monetary policies, according to influential American financial analyst Bill Gross. He believes that emission of trillions of dollars will push the dollar’s worth down worldwide. This will result not only in a larger amount of dollars but also in lower yields for investors. Consequently, foreign investors might wind up their dollar-denominated assets.

 

Experts and investors are expecting the outcome of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee scheduled for 2-3 November.

Experts believe that this meeting will make a resolution to commence the second stage of currency stimulation that involves a buyback of governmental bonds and other assets worth from 500 billion to 2 trillion dollars from the market. A quick note: in late 2008 the FED made an assignment of 1.7 trillion dollars for purchase of treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the wave of the financial crisis that struck the US. Now everyone is expecting a new monetary emission in the US economy that FED President Ben Bernanke made a rather broad hint at.

 These measures justify a number of negative signals. To start with, it is the unemployment rate that has stopped at the mark of 9.6%. Also notably, US Q3 GDP forecast has been lowered to maximum 2%. Basic personal spending has also increased by 0.8%. Emission is expected to last a couple of months. The FED will allegedly spend about 80-100 billion dollars each month for purchase of securities. In the meantime, experts will be monitoring the market to make sure that this program really has a positive effect. Unfortunately, the US economy has no alternative way out.

6ECONT and EURUSD: hard way up

Market Leader informed

Yesterday the common European currency managed to update its local high, getting close to 1.4060. However the movement looks weak. Even though from the technical point of view GBPUSD shows uptrend, in practice it looks like everything may rapidly change in the short run.

Nevertheless, most investors tend to express positive sentiments, noting that EUR has reached its max value since Oct 25

^th

. It happened in spite of the fact that the yield spreads of the Spanish and Irish treasury bonds had grown against the German bond yield spreads. Such an ambiguous situation makes EURUSD look uncertain in the mid-term perspective, increasing risky sentiments.

Today’s macroeconomic data may turn out to be a significant market accelerator as there are many important news releases expected for today:

8.00GMT   - EU news block

09:30GMT - PMI Services (GB)

USA news

12:15 GMT - ADP Employment Change

14:00 GMT - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, Factory orders

14:30 GMT - Crude Oil Inventories

18:15 GMT - Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

GBPUSD stays flat while waiting for economic news

Market Leader informed

The British Pound met November in a flat range.

At the moment GBPUSD keeps ignoring the positive tendencies shown by the numerous economic sectors. Even British Petroleum has recently reported profits in the 3^rd quarter after suffering heavy losses connected with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

By now the price has succeeded in partially recovering from yesterday’s decline after the news (the recovery is over 50%).

As a result GBPUSD widened the flat range. Numerous investors and traders are not in a hurry to enter the market as they are waiting for today’s news on USD.

News for Nov 3^rd 2010 (GMT):

09:30     GBR - PMI Services

12:15     USA - ADP Employment Change

14:00     USA - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite, Factory orders

14:30     USA - Crude Oil Inventories

18:15     USA - Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision

Global crisis: what debts will developed countries have?

Market Leader informed

The number of problems in the modern world is getting bigger while the number of the ways to solve them is declining. The pension problem is becoming more pressing. Scientists around the world are concerned about the reduction of the able-bodied population. It is not a secret that many countries have huge public debts. That is why austerity measures, including the reduction of financing a range of social programs, are seen as a solution.

Last week one of the popular info agencies released the results of survey, according to which by 2050 the public debts of the majority of the developed countries will reach 300% of the national GDP. According to the similar forecast for this year, the figure is 60% of the GDP.
The United Nations report that in 30-40 years the total number of those who are older than 65 years will double, reaching 1 billion people. If there are no active steps towards reconsidering the budgets, including the introduction of pension and health-care reforms, the sovereign debts of the developed counties will hit their economies with another severe crisis.

Of course, at this point the developed countries’ safety factor is fairly high in terms of pension and social maintenance, but the demographic situation there is seriously deteriorating.

The forecast for the US isn’t much better. According to the modest estimations, the public debt is expected to reach 415% of the GDP by 2050. The Japan is expected to experience even a harder strike: its sovereign debt is expected to reach 750%. The developing countries will have to face the same problem. However the problem there is not expected to be so severe.

Wall Street: problems again?

Market Leader informed

People have already started to gradually forget about the crisis.

US banks are showing stability, the rivalry is getting weaker. However, according to the reports of some broking agencies, the situation is not as favorable as it seems to be.

All that semblance of stability is made at the expense of the funds allocated for bad debts. The Wall Street is still working professionally, however it cannot influence all the changes. There are even suppositions: “The things, which are bad for the Wall Street, are good for the entire economy”. The US has created a “soap bubble of prosperity” while the Wall Street has to pay for it.

The financial sector is still showing poor results. However bonus payments keep rising, practically breaking their previous record. Experts assume that the bonuses are growing faster than the incomes.

All that has led to the loss of the investors’ confidence in the Wall Street because they do not want to see “soap bubbles” as when the situation is really stable the brokers and banks earn less.

 

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6ECONT and EURUSD: rather up than down

Market Leader informed

Over the last few days the common European currency has made a consolidation effort, updating the local high at 1.4010. Today’s trading session may indicate whether the indefinite movement will turn into a flattish pattern within the 1.3878 – 1.3920 range or EURUSD will manage to conquer new heights, forming a solid bullish impulse.

This week’s market movements can be influenced by FOMC meeting minutes, which are to be released on Nov 3rd at 19.15GMT.
Most analysts consider the current condition of USD as rather weak. That is why in the short run we may witness the consolidation of the US Dollar against other major currencies. The investors’ attention is focused on how often and in what volume the Fed Reserve is going to implement the measures of “quantitative weakening”.

Today’s news impact on the market is minimal as the macroeconomic data are expected to come out only for GB at 09.30GMT.

For Nov 2nd 2010 the Department of Volume Analysis of Masterforex-V Academy has determined:
The mid-term trend of EURUSD
The short-term trend of 6ECONT (EURUSD):
The key moment will be the market reaction to 1.3920, which is a significant level of the contract with 52.000 lots of trading volume. If EUR succeeds in settling above the level and turning it into support, there will be a solid base for an uptrend. Otherwise the price may continue developing the flattish pattern.

Greek police detains 2 suspects carrying a parcel bomb for Nicolas Sarkozy

Market Leader informed

According to Reuters, on Monday Greek police intercepted a parcel bomb addressed to the French president. Earlier that day another package had exploded at a courier company in Athens, injuring an employee. 2 suspects were detained later, however the police didn’t find out if there were any ties with al-Qaeda.

In the meantime, EURUSD keeps moving within the 1,37-1,4079 range.

There is a retracement currently being formed against yesterday’s completed bullish wave. By now the price has terminated bearish wave A H1. On forming downward wave a(c )/C the price will start developing a FZR* of the same wave level.
The Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system supposes that today EURUSD will keep staying within the same range (1,37-1,4079). The enquiry is that the market participants are waiting for tomorrow’s significant news releases, which may decide the future of USD. It is very likely that until the news release on the Fed Reserve interest rate decision the Forex traders will be cautious.

“Golden days” continue… What should investors do?

Market Leader informed

Gold keeps restlessly growing in price, conquering one historical high after another. The situation for investors is rather difficult: to buy, to sell or to maintain?

Let’s find out what makes gold behave in such a way! According to some experts, the reasons for the “rise” of gold are in the following:
• growing money supply
• unstable economy
• formation of international reserves

Inflation processes connected with USD make gold prices rise. According to the latest data, the US Federal Reserve will buy back its liabilities in the volume which is twice as low as it was previously announced. Consequently the volume of the unsecured money supply will rise up to almost $500 million. The logical conclusion is that in the short run the factor is going to push the gold price further up.
As far as the unstable economy is concerned, only this summer politicians started saying that national economies survived the crisis. But nobody can guarantee stable economic growth in the sort-term perspective. The forecasts are unspecific as those who make them are carful. So it can be definitely concluded that this issue will also promote an further increase in the price on the precious metal in a fairly long-term perspective.

InstaForex: it is time for price retracement!

Market Leader informed

Wave analysis: Friday’s minimum is most likely to be the end of wave C. Yet, the whole structure resembles the horizontal triangular pattern, consequently now we can witness the 4th wave of the pattern – d. If the assumption is right then the current wave objectives are in the 1.4000 area, followed by a reversal for the downward 5th wave – e, with the closest objective around 1.3800.

Tech analysis indicates that the bullish retracement within the framework of working out the “sell” signal has already been terminated as the market will face another wave of the downtrend with the closest objective at 1.3750. That is why it would be logical to assume that wave d is finished and there will be some downtrend.

Fundamental analysis: this time there is little info to analyze. The US makes efforts to stimulate its national currency. On the other hand, Japan may seriously interfere with the market in the short run, waiting for info on the volume of the assets bought by the Fed Reserve. That is why now it is too difficult to make any forecasts basing on the results of the fundamental analysis. Consequently, we should currently rely only on the mentioned tech and wave analysis.

EURUSD: is the “Euro marathon” over?

Market Leader informed

Yesterday the Greeks were celebrating the 2500th anniversary of the Battle of Marathon.
The Battle of Marathon took place in 490 BC during the first Persian invasion of Greece. It was fought between the citizens of Athens, aided by Plataea, and a Persian force commanded by Datis and Artaphernes (taken from Wikipedia). The Greeks managed to gain a victory over the Persians. A messenger was sent to Athens. He ran 42km 195m, announced the news and fell dead. In his memory an marathon race is held every year, the participants of which follow the route of the famous messenger warrior.

In the meantime, by the beginning of this trading week EURUSD has formed an upward H3 FZR*.

The Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system supposes that on getting close to 1.4080 there will be a retracement against the downward H4 wave. If the level is overcome the price will form an H8 FZR.
For the downward scenario the key levels are: an H4 FZR (1.3734) – the start of subwave c (C ) of level H8 with further getting over the current mid-term low at 1.3697 will prompt the continuation of the retracement against the wave C of level D2.

News for Nov 1st (GMT):

08:55 GER - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
09:00 EU - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
12:30 GB - Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing
12:30 USA - Personal Income, Personal Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator
14:00 USA - ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

David Cameron gains further support

Market Leader informed

Last Thursday there was the EU summit held in Brussels, where David Cameron prevented the EU budget costs from growing 5.9%.
His decision was supported by France and Germany. According to Cameron, it is unacceptable to increase the expenses of the EU budget while the UK government has decided to implement the austerity measures.
Against such a background GBPUSD is showing steady growth.

Experts from the Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system report that at the moment the price of GBPUSD is moving inside wave c (C ) of level H4, which will provide further support for the uptrend until the defensive MF pivot and MF Sloping Channel are broken through.

Today’s news (GMT):

09:30 GBR - PMI Manufacturing
12:30 USA - Personal Spending, Personal Income
14:00 USA - ISM Manufacturing, Construction Spending

Speaking about Great Britain’s strategic lines of development

Market Leader informed

In October one of the British citizens was lucky enough to win the “Euro million” lottery jackpot to the sum of 129 million euro. Now he is able to solve all his financial problems, which cannot be said about Great Britain as a whole.
The British government can only boast its 2nd strategic overview. The authors had a difficult task – to formulate the country’s development strategy while the government is trying to reduce the budget deficit.
The 3 main parts of the document explain the place of GB in the modern world and the most “harmonious” ways of surviving crises. The existing threats to the national security are also mentioned there.

The national strategy is:
• To consolidate GB’ ties with the fast-developing countries that are gradually becoming more significant in the international arena, including China, India, Russia and Brazil.
• To reduce the military costs by 7-8%, down to 1.7% of the national GDP, which is lower than the NATO standards (2%). According to the BBC, this will make other EU members of NATO reduce their military costs as well.

Besides, London has decided to change its priorities. Within the next 2 months the British parliament will be introduced with a bill implying the principle of sovereignty in the EU system of law and changing the order established by the European Communities Act 1972 (an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom providing for the incorporation of European Community law into the domestic law of the United Kingdom – Wikipedia), which will make it possible to cancel any decision within the framework of the EU’s common system of law.
London still can boast Moody’s highest credit rating with stable forecasts. However the risk of a decline in the rating may increase if the government fails to consolidate the budget and if the treasury-bond yield rises or there is another wave of the debt crisis.
The UK real estate market keeps showing the negative tendency. Over the last 12 months the prices has fallen 12.4%. The amount of the new homes for sale in September is the lowest in 6 months (26.000). The average price has decreased down to the level of January 2006. The only positive indicator is housing affordability, which has declined down to the minimal level registered in Feb 2004.

Tech analysis of GBPUSD rate.