Wednesday 18 January 2012
Oil price: how much will a barrel cost in 2012?
Will BRICS Save Eurozone From Crisis?
Brussels seems to be ready to accept aid from anywhere, even from those countries that are not its allies or friends to, say the least. One of them are the so-called BRICS states (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa).
Best and Worst Broker Banks of 2012 – Who Are They?
■ Swiss MIG BANK has 588 starting points, occupying the first line in the table suggested for voting;
■ another equally well-known bank is also Swiss – Dukascopy – has 525 points (2nd position at the start of the vote);
■ Danish Saxo Bank – 3rd line, having 345 points
■ our native broker banks, Alfa-Bank and Nefteprombank, occupy only 9th and 10th position, whereas SMP bank occupies pre-last 14th position.
Tuesday 10 January 2012
Choosing an Optimum Pair to Trade
The second approach is purely mathematical. You are speculators and your profits depend on how strong the fluctuations are, your minimum risk for a pair is defined as its spread. This is why, to find out what is more beneficial for you as a speculator, just take the average fluctuation range for pairs in question and compare it with the spread offered by your broker. For example, I took and compared volatility data from one popular website with trading conditions of a large DC. Have a look at what we have:
First columns include average volatility of seven major forex pairs, then the spread for each pair, the following columns represent volatility divided by the spread. What do these simple calculations demonstrate? We get the pair's size of fluctuation per one unit of its minimum risk. The higher the resulting value, the more beneficial it is to trade the pair from the mathematical point of view. The winners' trio looks this way: top place - EURUSD, second and third - USDCHF and GBPUSD, respectively. Of course, you may have your own volatility data and the broker's spread values. These are sample calculations. At any rate, I suggest making them independently not only for majors, but also for crosses. Calculate the average daily volatility for the past year yourself and compare it to the spread. The third approach to defining the best instrument lies in a plane that combines personal preferences and objective parameters. This is where we assess how hard or easy it is to trade a certain pair. Simply put, we need to see the charts. I take one period for the above majors as material for research. EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDCHF
USDJPY
USDCAD
AUDUSD
NZDUSD
I would like to point out that these are tick charts, i.e. the more active the pair is, the longer the chart will be for the same period of time. It is rather challenging to evaluate one chart as compared to another in terms of trading ease. This task is usually performed 'by sight'. For example, one can have a look at pairs where stops were taken, pullbacks are deeper, candle wicks are longer etc. There are objective methods that evaluate how smooth the chart it, how much the length of an individual candle deviates from average values for this chart. The smoother the chart, the more equal candles it has and the simple it is to trade it. This criterion, for example, rules out the YEN right away with its periodic spikes. Now, off the top of my head, AUDUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF have the easiest and smoothest charts. The euro, pound and Canadian dollar are not in a clear trend and have very deep pullbacks. In terms of the shape, New Zealand's dollar has the best chart. So, it appears as a result of our today's little research that USDCHF wins overall. NZDUSD has the easiest chart to trade but is mathematically least profitable. I suggest you make your own research and include crosses as potential leaders in terms of a number of indicators.
Head of the DFWA Department Ilya Pressler (VeloVelo)
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EURUSD: David Cameron Against New Tax
Today Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy will meet in Berlin to discuss numerous issues, including a new tax on financial operations. The leaders of Germany and France support the idea of introducing a 0.1% fee in order to protect financial markets from speculators, thus making them more stable.
Last week Nicolas Sarkozy said that he was going to initiate the introduction of the tax even without the necessary support from other EU members.
In the meantime, David Cameron, UK Prime Minister, is against introducing the tax, saying that such measures can scare away big-scale investment companies headquartered in the City of London.
In an interview to the BBC Mr. Cameron said that "the idea of a new European tax when you're not going to have that tax put in place in other places, I don't think is sensible and so I will block it…"
In the meantime, according to the SRP Sub-department under the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System ,EURUSD is forming an upswing - wave C inside an H1 recovery against the current downtrend, which will probably be resumed after the recovery is over.
To define the vector of the forthcoming movement we apply the SRP elements and other binary patterns by MF.
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Text: Alex von Stachelkopf, the SRP Sub-department under the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System
Danish Presidency Of EU Council: Any Changes For Investors
What should we expect from Denmark ? What are the country’s ambitions and priorities?
What is the presidency of the EU Council?
According to the experts of Masterforex-V Academy, the EU Council and the European Parliament are the EU’s major authorities (all in all, there are 7 institutions).
Each EU member has a right to preside over the EU Council. It is done by turn, yet there is no exception, regardless of economic potential, size, period of being an EU member etc. In 6 months Denmark will yield power to Cyprus . Denmark has presided over the EU Council for 7 times since joining the EU.
According to the so-called "triple-shared presidency" (or presidency trios), each 3 successive presidencies should cooperate for 1.5 years to work out a common agenda and to provide additional continuity by sharing common political programs. Now it’s time for Denmark , Cyprus and Ireland to work out a new strategic plan for the next 1.5 years.
Denmark – EU member with its own opinion and ambitions
The thing is that Denmark , which has always had its own opinion contradicting Brussels’ official standpoint, came to power in the EU during the most critical time for the union.
Denmark has always tried to stand out in a crowd:
· First, the Danish refused to ratify the Maastricht treaty. They adopted it only after Denmark got some privileges several fields, including, legal issues, currency and security.
· Then Denmark refused to enter the eurozone.
· In spring 2011 the Danish government nearly closed the country’s borders, thus questioning the Schengen agreement.
In other words, Denmark ’s rebellious manners have always been a headache for Brussels.
Danish priorities
The Danish authorities have already highlighted their priorities. It should be noted, that Poland (the previous president of the EU Council), was focused on promoting the idea of expanding the EU at the expense of Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Ukraine and Moldova.
However, the reality made the EU authorities focus on other tasks like saving the eurozone. Denmark is going to focus on the EU’s internal problems. The major priorities are:
Responsible Europe: It implies the further development of the 2014-2020 draft budget. The major concern is budget deficit reduction, while energy efficiency and stable economic development are secondary.
Dynamic Europe: Denmark sees the only way out of the crisis, which suggests full cooperation of all the 27 EU members. It also implies join decision-making. Germany, France and Great Britain – Europe’s economic locomotives - will direct the process of coming out of the eurozone crisis. As for Denmark itself, it will contribute to the EU’s domestic market through innovation technologies. The goal is to ensure economic growth without spending more energy and natural resources.
Green Europe: Denmark is planning to strengthen the EU’s role in solving such global environmental problems as energy saving and climate changes.
Safe Europe: This aspect suggests fighting illegal migration and organized crime, strengthening the outside borders of the EU and expanding the authority of European External Action Service (EEAS).
It should be noted that Danish politicians realize what difficulties they will face.
FOREX:
In the meantime, according to the experts of Masterforex-V Academy, EURUSD has finished forming wave 5/A of Daily. If the downtrend continues, the local low 1.2857 will act as support. If it is broken, the next strong area of support is 1.2727-1.2722. In order to initiate a change of trend the price needs to break above the MF pivot and sloping channel 1.3548/1.3458 (as shown below):
Market Leader and Masterforex-V Academy would appreciate if you could participate in a survey. Please, visit the Academy’s forum for traders and investors and answer the following question:
Does it really matter which EU country presides over the EU Council?
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Greece: share you trouble, and you will get better
Psychologically, it is very hard to be a leader of the nation, whose neighbours and partners consider it to be the nation of idlers. This might have been the reason why ex-Premier of Greece Georgios Papandreou has made a decision to quit the post of Socialistic Party leader and take no part in the up-coming elections.
Current head of Greek government Lucas Papademos is also getting emotional. This has been demonstrated by the situation when, having failed to reach common ground with labour unions concerning the question of urgent need to reduce wages, current premier was obliged to make a public statement that the program aimed at saving Greek economy will not work if labour unions do not seek for understanding and try to reach consensus. Consequently, there will be no money to pay out debts, and in March there will collapse non-payment crisis, or, in other words, default.
Technically, in relation to EURUSD currency pair, FOREX market has not yet faced the hidden wave "В" of d1 level. The price has currently reached the first negative point of 1.2885, the next one is 1.2724. They will become the nearest targets of the trend.
How the situation develops is to be traced at smaller timeframes. The highly potential ТР (Turning Point) of h1 wave level is being considered towards falling. According to the System of Early Prediction Sub-department at Masterforex-V Academy of Trading, as soon as the first impulse bearish wave is over, there will start a full-scale falling cycle of “ABC” algorithm of h1 level, which is to be set below the abovementioned levels. Provided that this happens, hidden wave “B” of d1 level will be delayed. Otherwise, is the levels are kept, the price will start rising wave "С" d1, following hidden wave "В" d1.
The System of Early Prediction Sub-department under the Department of Masterforex-V Trading System will signal about the change of the situation or the direction of trend.
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The price of wheat may rise in 2012
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Gold and Silver: Market Outlook
Today Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy are planning to meet in Berlin in order to discuss the new fiscal rules approved during the latest EU summit. These rules are expected to take effect in March 2012. The two leaders will probably consider the possibility of expanding the eurozone’s stabilization fund. However, there is little chance as Germany’s standpoint is known.
Friday’s US unemployment data came out better than expected. The non-farm employment increased by 200K jobs in December while the rate of unemployment declined down to the lowest level in 3 years.
China’s central bank keeps stimulating the country’s economy. In 2012 the bank is planning to lend 9-9.5 trillion yuan. Since May 2011 China’s import has been growing faster than its export. This year the balance-of-trade surplus is expected to decline below the level of 2005, $102B.
According to the CFTC report, big-scale investors increased their gold trades, both long and short ones - +1926 and +1743 correspondingly. For small-scale speculators, the figures are -865 and +1407.
Against this background, the trading volume of gold is slightly above the 30-day average, with gold moving in a narrow price range. Asia keeps showing higher demand for gold in advance of Chinese New Year. Dealers underline that the premium for physical gold increased from $1.3 up to $1.7 per ounce a week ago.
Forecast: According to the Department of Commodity Trading of Masterforex-V Academy, today gold may initiate a downtrend if it stays below 1617-1617.5. However, it also may test 1622. The probable targets of the downtrend are 1590-1589, and maybe 1575. Gold will resume its rally if the price consolidates above 1617.50.
As for silver, in order to resume its rally, it will have to break and consolidate above 29.30. Otherwise, a downtrend will be highly probable, with targets around 27.95-28 and even 27.45-27.30.
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Oil price: how much will a barrel cost in 2012?
What was the reason of such change?
Oil price has on numerous occasions been record high this year. The top point was reached in April 2011 due to the situation in Middle East and North Africa:
Minimal cost as of the 1st day of the month was fixed in January 2011; it amounted to 94.6 dollars per barrel.
The average cost of Urals oil, which makes up the major part of Russian export, has reached 109.35 dollars per barrel, having gone over the point of 2010 by 40%. The average cost of oil product in December 2010 has reached 89.5 dollars, whereas this December it amounted to 107.6 dollars. Factors that influence oil costwillleadtocheaperprice.■ dollarrate. As a result of dollar bearing the title of world reserve currency that has high demand worldwide, just as oil, these factors are interrelated. Higher dollar rate has reverse influence on oil price, whereas lower rate, on the contrary, leads to the price rise of black gold;
■ factor of seasonal use of oil. Мasterforex-V Trading System, oil future has formed bullish wave а(С) or reduced wave С 92.52 – 101.71. Strong bullish wave C of Daily level may be expected to be formed further; its nearest significant resistance will be provided by points 102.44, 102.78, and 103.95. The bullish trend will reverse and bearish trend will form only when pivot MF 94.84 is passed, which is to be followed by FZR.Winter, which is characterized by cold in many countries that are distant from equator, stipulates abundant use of electric energy and fuel for heating. Summer leads to the rise of transport use, stipulating higher price of oil, gas, and diesel fuel. Predictions of oil price in 2012 Analytics are expecting some fluctuations of price. The Ministry of Economy and Development of Russian Federation have changed its prediction about mid-term oil price towards rising – to 109 dollars per barrel. Prediction about the price of Urals oil in 2012 - 2014 has also been changed – to 100 dollars per barrel, to 97 dollars in 2013, and 101 dollars per barrel in 2014. Price policy in relation to Brent oil has set the bottom line at the point of 80 dollars per barrel and the top line – at 120 dollars per barrel. With the start of 2012 export duties in Russia will drop by 9 dollars, having amounted to 397.5 dollars per ton. Since January 01 export duty on deposits from North Caspian and Eastern Siberia are expected to drop by 7 dollars to the point of 194.1 dollars per ton. In January the unified rate of export duty on oil products will amount to 262.3 dollars, which is 6 dollars less than in December, whereas penalty rate has amounted to 357.7 dollars, which is 6.6 dollars less than its value in December 2011:
■ impact of global economic situation. Slower rate of global economic growth will have a particular impact on the volume of oil products use in 2012. Recession, which has already touched major oil users worldwide, will lead to smaller demand in 2012. Particularly for Europe, demand is predicted to drop by 3% in comparison to current use;
■ policy of African countries and Middle East. Next year oil supply from Iran to the countries with advanced economy may drop. Current heated political situation is close to military conflict. At present the countries own political changes are important for North Africa, Syria, and Egypt; therefore, outer oil price in 2012 is not worth trusting. After a set of military conflicts Libya is to be aimed at the recovery of oil deposits. Taking into consideration the current situation inside the country, there is little hope for such recovery. OPEC currently plays a significant role in balancing supply and demand. In 2011 the share of its members in global oil recovery amounted to about 50%. Therefore, it is up to OPEC to satisfy demand for black gold in 2012. Saudi Arabia, one of the most predatory producers at oil market, may favour the drop of oil price to about 80 dollars per barrel due to natural saturation of the country’s territory with this product. According to the experts of the Department of Current tendencies that define the characteristics of oil market bear macroeconomic character. World analytics define a number of crucial factors, which will determine supply and demand for black gold in 2012. First of them concerns global economic recession, second – general attention to goods, third – problems with Iran, forth – the rate of American dollar, and fifth factor concerns seasonal aspect:
■ Middle East policy. As mentioned above, political statements the heads of major oil exporters have an immediate impact on its price. Current situation with the Strait of Ormuz may lead to the shortage of the use of Iran oil by western countries. Similar reaction may result from putting more pressure on Teheran, which keeps nuclear policy that may question people’s lives. If the number of supplies drops, the price of oil is bound to change, or, to be more exact, rise twice;
■ fear of changing price. Worries concerning the future cost of black gold have a direct influence on its price. The major part of option contracts for the first half of 2012 that have been concluded at NIMEX stock exchange during previous six months mentioned the price range of 130 – 150 dollars per barrel. Optional demand has risen by a quarter and amounts to about 100 ths. transactions annually. As a balance to the contracts aimed at maximal cost exchange market players have started concluding optional contracts aimed at minimal cost. The number of held transactions with predictions of oil costing amount about 45 – 60 dollars per barrel in six-month period has risen by a third and amounts to over 60 ths. contracts;
■ economic recession. Oil supply may drop due to less rapid economic growth of world leaders. This
“Market Leader” Magazine and Masterforex-V Academy hold a questionnaire at the forum for traders and investors: in your opinion, will oil get cheaper?.
• no, the USA primarily does not want this;
• yes, oil prices have reached their peak
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