Wednesday 15 June 2011

How will the Retail Sales data influence the US Dollar exchange rate?

USDThe USA’ Retail Sales data declined in May for the first time over the last 11 months.

 

Car sales declined dramatically after the earthquake in Japan. May’s sales declined by 0,2% while in April there was a 0.3% increase. Nevertheless, the data turned out to be better than expected as the index had been expected to show a 0.7% decline.

In general, the Retail Sales report shows an unfavorable picture in the US consumer market. The population is trying to cut spending in response to the recent economic decline. However, the Core Retail Sales value (excluding the sales of cars, gasoline and building materials) gained 0.2% in May after growing by 0.35 in April.
FOREX.
The US Dollar is still under pressure against the basket of major currencies. According to the Department of studying Masterforex-V trading system , the USD index has just broken below the bullish sloping channel and formed a downswing along the major (long-term) downtrend as well as the “moment of truth” pattern (Daily) against it.

A bearish FZR of Daily will prompt the desire of the index to update May’s low. In this case the closest support levels will be found at 73,66 and 72,86. Once the bearish scenario is canceled the “Hound of the Baskervilles” pattern by Elder/MF (Daily 2) will continue the retracement against the major trend. 76,54 will become the closest resistance level.

 

 

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